What's going on today
Written by an AI agent each time the tracked opportunities change. It reads the same market data shown below and searches the news when something needs explaining. Informational only — not financial advice.
Gold holds near record highs; scanner finds no real arbitrage, just rounding noise
Gold is trading firmly in record territory, with spot bouncing in the roughly $4,270–$4,350 per ounce range this week.
Gold price was trading at $4,277 per ounce as of 8:50 a.m. Eastern Time on September 14, a $112 increase from three days earlier and a $614 increase from a year ago. That trajectory shows up cleanly in the option-style markets: Kalshi's September 30 above $4,250.99 settlement contract sits almost exactly at a coin-flip (52¢ bid / 57¢ ask), which is what you'd expect when the strike sits near the middle of the market's expected distribution for spot at expiry. The broader move has been attributed to Fed easing and safe-haven flows — gold safe-haven demand has emerged as a catalyst driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainty, alongside softer monetary policy from three consecutive Fed rate cuts making investors more bullish.
The scanner flagged one item today, and it's not worth chasing. It pairs a Polymarket YES, gold's low touches $3,900 in September at 3.6¢ with NO, low touches $3,800 at 96.3¢, for a combined cost of 99.9¢ against a guaranteed $1 payout. The edge is a tenth of a cent per contract, capped at 243 contracts for a grand total of $0.24 in capturable profit — essentially rounding noise on two deep out-of-the-money, thinly traded strikes (spot is more than $400 above both thresholds), not a real mispricing.
No cross-platform arbitrage showed up between Kalshi and Polymarket gold contracts, and that's the normal state of things: Kalshi's contracts settle on the spot price at a fixed future moment, while Polymarket's touch contracts pay out if gold crosses a level anytime during the window. Those are different bets on different rules, so their prices aren't directly comparable even when the strikes look similar. Overall, a quiet day for arbitrage, layered on top of a genuinely newsworthy gold rally.
Live opportunities
Each card is a set of trades that logically cannot pay out less than its guaranteed amount at resolution: e.g. gold hitting $12,000 requires it to hit $10,000 first, so "hit $10,000" can never be worth less than "hit $12,000". When the combined price of such a set drops below its guaranteed payout, that gap is the edge. Kalshi taker fees (0.07×P×(1−P) per contract) are already subtracted; Polymarket charges no trading fee. Capturable is the edge times how many contracts are actually available at that price in the live order book (the thinner leg caps the position) — cards are ranked by it, so a small edge on a deep book can outrank a big edge you could only fill once.
No opportunities with a positive net edge right now. That is the normal state - real arbitrage is rare and small. The scan keeps running every 30 minutes.
Recently spotted
First sighting of each opportunity the scanner has flagged (it checks every 30 minutes; most edges vanish within a few scans). Full history in arb_log.csv.
Price ladders
Each line is one market's ladder of price levels: how likely the platform thinks gold reaches each level (mid price). Consistent pricing slopes smoothly downward — a kink, flat step, or upward blip is a potential mispricing, and where a solid (Polymarket) and dashed (Kalshi) line cover the same levels you can compare the platforms directly. Hover any point for bid/ask.
All live gold contracts (90)
Every open gold-price market on both platforms, normalized to one schema. Settle = price at a specific timestamp; touch = trades through the level at any point in the window. Prices are YES bid/ask as probabilities.
| Platform | Underlying | Type | Level | YES bid/ask | Window ends | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December? · touch · ends in 81 days | ||||||
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $5,000 | 0.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $5,000 | 20.0% / 21.0% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $6,000 | 4.0% / 6.0% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $8,000 | 1.5% / 2.7% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $10,000 | 1.4% / 1.8% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $12,000 | 1.2% / 1.7% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $15,000 | 0.9% / 1.2% | in 81 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $4,500 | - / 99.0% (no book) | in 83 days | open |
| polymarket | GC FUTURES | touch high | $7,000 | 2.7% / 4.0% | in 83 days | open |
| Polymarket · Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 12? · direction · ends in 2 days | ||||||
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | direction | - | 4.0% / 50.0% | in 2 days | open |
| Polymarket · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026? · touch · ends in 6 days | ||||||
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,850 | 2.0% / 95.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,900 | 2.0% / 95.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,950 | 2.0% / 97.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,000 | 1.0% / 97.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,050 | 2.0% / 96.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,100 | 2.0% / 97.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,150 | 2.0% / 98.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,200 | 1.0% / 99.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,250 | 1.0% / 98.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,300 | 2.0% / 96.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,350 | 2.0% / 95.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,400 | 1.0% / 94.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,450 | 1.0% / 94.0% | in 6 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,500 | 2.0% / 95.0% | in 6 days | open |
| Kalshi · Gold price on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? · settle · ends in 20 days | ||||||
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,352 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,392 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,432 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,472 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,512 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,552 | 91.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,592 | 95.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,632 | 95.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,672 | 95.0% / 99.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,712 | 95.0% / 99.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,752 | 95.0% / 100.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,792 | 94.0% / 99.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,832 | 93.0% / 98.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,872 | 92.0% / 97.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,912 | 90.0% / 95.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,952 | 86.0% / 94.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $3,992 | 79.0% / 80.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,032 | 76.0% / 82.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,072 | 70.0% / 78.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,112 | 62.0% / 69.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,152 | 57.0% / 62.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,192 | 48.0% / 53.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,232 | 40.0% / 45.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,272 | 29.0% / 36.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,312 | 21.0% / 29.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,352 | 15.0% / 23.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,392 | 11.0% / 19.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,432 | 7.0% / 15.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,472 | 6.0% / 11.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,512 | 4.0% / 9.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,552 | 2.0% / 7.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,592 | 2.0% / 7.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,632 | 1.0% / 6.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,672 | 1.0% / 5.0% | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,712 | 0.0% / 4.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,752 | 0.0% / 3.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,792 | 0.0% / 3.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,832 | 0.0% / 2.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,872 | 0.0% / 2.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,912 | 0.0% / 1.0% (no book) | in 20 days | open |
| Polymarket · What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026? · touch · ends in 22 days | ||||||
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,600 | 0.8% / 1.6% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,700 | 1.5% / 2.7% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,800 | 5.1% / 7.2% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $3,900 | 8.0% / 10.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,000 | 31.0% / 36.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch low | $4,100 | 56.0% / 58.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,300 | 61.0% / 75.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,400 | 29.0% / 35.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,500 | 13.0% / 14.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,600 | 5.0% / 7.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,700 | 1.0% / 1.6% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,800 | 0.7% / 1.0% | in 22 days | open |
| polymarket | XAU SPOT | touch high | $4,900 | 0.5% / 1.0% | in 22 days | open |
| Kalshi · Gold price at year end? · settle · ends in 82 days | ||||||
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,300 | 49.0% / 52.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,400 | 39.0% / 40.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,500 | 32.0% / 36.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,600 | 21.0% / 22.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,700 | 15.0% / 16.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,800 | 11.0% / 20.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $4,900 | 7.0% / 8.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,000 | 5.0% / 7.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,100 | 5.0% / 7.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,200 | 2.0% / 6.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,300 | 5.0% / 6.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,400 | 4.0% / 7.0% | in 82 days | open |
| kalshi | XAU SPOT | settle above | $5,500 | 4.0% / 7.0% | in 82 days | open |
Changelog
What's changed on this tracker since launch.
Archived 2026-10-09
Retired to make room for a new project. The 30-minute scans were switched off, so this page is the tracker's final snapshot and no longer updates. Real opportunities had become rare by then: 374 first sightings in July, 25 in August, 8 in September.
AI market brief 2026-08-17
A new “What's going on today” section at the top of the page, written by an AI agent rather than a template. The agent reads the same opportunities and contract prices shown below, decides for itself whether the numbers need explaining, and searches the news when they do — then writes a few paragraphs on what stands out, citing its sources. It regenerates only when the tracked opportunities actually change (or every six hours), so the 30-minute scan does not pay for a rewrite it doesn't need. Informational only, never a recommendation to trade.
Built-in guide 2026-07-13
A floating “? Guide” button now opens a chat-style helper that answers common questions about the tracker — what capturable means, how a profit can be guaranteed, settle vs touch, fees, data freshness and more — via suggested questions or a typed question matched by keywords. Fully static: no AI calls, no external requests, nothing typed ever leaves the page.
History mini-cards 2026-07-12
The "Recently spotted" history now uses compact mini-cards in the same style as the live opportunity cards — concise badged trade legs plus capturable and net edge — replacing the old wall of auto-generated sentences. The scan log also records structured leg summaries going forward, and older entries are reconstructed automatically.
Cleaner opportunity cards 2026-07-12
Redesigned the live opportunities from a dense table into clean cards: each trade leg is a concise one-line proposition with a button straight to its market. Dropped the noisy extras (settlement-source basis-risk notes, the 'not additive' caveat, and the gross/fee breakdown — now a hover tooltip), and near-duplicate variants are summarized as a count instead of a full sublist.
Freshness & clarity 2026-07-12
The header now shows how long ago the data was refreshed ("updated 12 minutes ago") and raises a banner if the 30-minute auto-refresh appears to have stalled, so you can tell live numbers from stale ones at a glance. The "opportunities now" count also now matches the grouped list instead of the raw pre-grouping total.
Cleaner opportunity list & contracts table 2026-07-12
Opportunities that reuse one leg against several strikes are now grouped — the best is shown with a "not additive" note (they draw on one shared order book) and the rest listed compactly beneath, instead of near-duplicate rows. The full contracts table is grouped under named per-event headers, and a bug that hid each variant's distinguishing strike was fixed.
Order-book depth sizing 2026-07-12
Each flagged opportunity is now sized against live order-book depth (Kalshi's orderbook endpoint, Polymarket's CLOB book) instead of just a top-of-book price. The page reports total capturable profit (edge x max executable contracts) and ranks opportunities by it, so a small edge on a deep book correctly outranks a big edge you could only fill once.
Legibility pass, then a bug fix 2026-07-05
Added a two-panel probability-vs-strike price-ladder chart (solid Polymarket / dashed Kalshi lines), an at-a-glance stat-tile summary, and human-relative timestamps. Then fixed the Kalshi “open” links, which pointed to a guessed URL that dead-ended, and added the “Recently spotted” section so visitors see a track record of past findings, not just the current instant.
Launch 2026-07-05
First version of the cross-platform gold arbitrage scanner: normalizes every open gold-price market on Polymarket and Kalshi into one schema, detects logically-guaranteed mispricings with a single implication rule (fee-adjusted), and refreshes automatically every 30 minutes via GitHub Actions.